What to Watch for in the Debates
/Find the factors that can swing the election (and, if you’re old enough, make a decent drinking game)
Between you and me, I won’t be watching. It’s past my bedtime for one thing; and I’m more interested in how the debate will be used in various media afterward. While the audience will be large, it won’t come close to the audience that receives the debates sliced, diced, and memed.
Which one will go on the attack?
And keep in mind that the 7% of likely voters who claim to be undecided won’t be watching the debates. They’re the least informed voters, and they’ll be absorbing the aftereffects of the debate on social media. It’s worth telling students that an argument often has an interesting half-life with different audiences in this age of smartphones and social media.
That being said, look for three basic factors on debate night:
Ethos
Tactics
Framing
For Ethos, watch for phronesis, or practical wisdom.
Which candidate looks like he knows how to be president? Which seems to have a command of the facts, and maybe a plan or two? Which one seems smarter? Both are entering the debate with low expectations. Note that Trump isn’t calling Biden “Sleepy Joe” anymore, and now claims falsely that Biden is on performance-enhancing drugs. It’s a way of raising expectations for Biden.
Also watch for virtue.
By this I don’t mean moral superiority. Virtue has to do with an audience’s feeling that the orator is a great member of the tribe.Which tribe will be more excited the next day? Trump has been astonishingly good at this, convincing uneducated, lower-middle-class Americans that he’s just like them. Biden used to be known as the “working man’s” politician. The problem for Biden is, his party no longer consists largely of working white men. That’s the Republican Party.
This election won’t be determined by deliberative argument. It’s all demonstrative, building up the enthusiasm level among voters who already support the candidate. In other words, it’s about turnout. While pundits have been properly pointing out Biden’s enthusiasm problem among Hispanics, turnout among young white voters will make the bigger difference. Will Biden seem less like a grouchy old man than Trump?
For tactics, look for the bites.
Next day, how would you propose a 15-second social media spot using an excerpt from the debate? Biden will try to come with memorable sound bites. He knows that Ronald Reagan did it with “There you go again.” Kamala Harris did it (against Biden!) with “That little girl was me.” In both those cases, the candidates worked with consultants and conceived, memorized, tested, and practiced those lines. Trump won’t do any of that. He goes for instinct. When he debated Clinton, his strategy seemed to be just looming next to her, showing he was taller. Very effective.
Less important but still watchable will be how Biden addresses the concerns of the voters he needs most: young people, Blacks, and those who switched from Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2016. The election will come down to turnout in the first two groups. But Biden can’t afford to alienate the swing voters. For that reason, he has more to lose in this debate than Trump does. How does he address racism without turning off the Obama-Trump switchers? Can he talk about climate change without dampening enthusiasm among Hispanics and other groups, people who feel desperate about the economy?
This means changing the frame.
Trump will try to come across as the outsider, turning Biden into the incumbent. He’ll run against the nonexistent “deep state” and try to pin Biden to it.
What should Biden do about this? If I were his advisor, I’d have him attack the billionaires who dodge taxes; and he should attack Trump for covering up his taxes. Then have him talk about how Trump and his rich friends are trying to rig the whole election and the Supreme Court with their money and power. The Obama-Trump switchers wanted change in both elections. They already think the nation is rigged against them. In other words, Biden needs to frame Trump as the corrupt incumbent.
While many people expect Trump to be the aggressor, Biden will be looking to stir up Democrats as well as voters who switched last election from Obama to Biden. This means taking on the traditional role of attacking the incumbent. So, who will be the biggest aggressor? Maybe you and your friends can bet on this.
Thanks to Melissa Vello, an AP English Language and Composition teacher, for asking me what her students should watch for in the debates. If you’re a teacher, get in touch and tell me what you’d like me to talk about.
